U POTRAZI ZA ZLATOM

autor: Ljiljana Tatić

Zapadne centralne banke su u potrazi za svojim zlatom dok Kina tiho postaje supersila zlata

Da vidimo prvo koliko danas u Evropi ima zlata , a koliko evra ? Najpouzdaniji podaci bi mogli biti iz 20o9 . godine pre urušavanja svetskog finansijskog sistema , dok još nisu počele značajnije međudržavne manipulacije za pumpanje ili srozavanje rejtinga .

Privredni dnevnik Handelsblat iz Diseldorfa objavio je u to vreme , da članice Evropske Unije čuvaju u bankarskim trezorima gotovo 12.600 tona zlata vrednog 127,52 milijarde evra .
Švajcarska , koja se u kriznim situacijama smatra “ bezbednom lukom “ za čuvanje vrednosti , indirektno pokriva svoju valutu rezervom od 1.666,2 tone zlata .
Najveće zlatne rezerve ima Nemačka , a zatim slede Francuska , Italija , Holandija , Evropska centralna banka , Španija , Portugalija , Austrija , Velika Britanija , Belgija , Grčka , Finska , Irska i Luksemburg .

sada dolazi prava horor priča …

Naime , poznato je da sve države sveta svoja međusobna dugovanja ali i poravnanja po pitanju državnih obveznica često uz međusobnu saglasnost izvršavaju u zlatu .
Takođe , poznato je da je Kina najveći svetski kupac i vlasnik američkih državnih obveznica .

U doba vladavine Bila Clintona ( sa saradnicima Robert Rubin , Sir Alan Grinspen i Lorens Samers ) amerikanci su poravnali Kinezima “ neka “ dugovanja u zlatu i to tako što su iz Fort Noks – a isporučili 600 tona zlata .

Kinezi nisu baš previše verovali amerima pa su napravili neka probna bušenja zlatnih poluga . Hemijska analiza je pokazala da zlatne poluge nisu bile zlatne nego samo pozlaćene , a u unutrašnjosti je bio volfram ( specifična težina zlata je 19.32 , 19.25 a volframa ). Tona volframa na tržištu metala košta oko 230 dolara , za koliko se može kupiti samo 4,5 grama zlata .

Kinezi su o ovome pisali ovde ( hvala Bogu ima naših ljudi koji znaju kineski , neizmerno im hvala ): http://big5.jrj.com.cn/gate/big5/gold.jrj.com.cn/2011/09/06071910956472 shtml .
i ovde http://ido.3mt.com.cn/Article/201109/shov2301346c30p1.html

Prošle godine je Venecuela zatražila da se vrati 90 tona zlata iz Bank of England.

Nemački Viši sud je nedavno doneo odluku da Nemačka mora pregledati svoje zlatne rezerve koje se nalaze u stranim zemljama kao što su SAD, Engleska i Francuska. Nemački inspektori će otići u odeljenje Federalnih rezervi u Nev Iork-u i Bank of England da pregledaju svoje zlato.

Nemačka će takođe vratiti 150 tona zlata da bi proverila njegovu čistoću.
55634965#pm_cmp=vid_OEV_P_P
Zero Hedge kaže citirajući Bloomberg:
„Ekvadorska vlada želi da banke u državi vrate oko 1/3 zlata koje je u inostranstvu u zemlju da bi se podržao državni rast“, rekao je prvi čovek državne poreske agencije. (Vidi: Počela lavina zahteva za vraćanjem zlata: Ekvador traži da mu se vrati 1/3 zlatnih rezervi iz FED-a i BOE)

Carlos Carrasco, direktor poreske agencije SRI, je rekao da bi ekvadorski zajmodavci mogli vratiti u zemlju oko 1.7 milijardi dolara i ispuniti obaveze prema međunarodnim klijentima. Carrasco je govorio na kongresnom saslušanju u Kuito-u o predlogu vlade da se poveća porez bankama u svrhu finansiranja gotovinskih subvencija za siromašne u ovoj južnoameričkoj državi.
Četiri člana švajcarskog Parlamenta traže da Švajcarska vrati svoje zlato.

Neki u Holandiji takođe traže svoje zlato.

Ned Nailor-Leiland iz Cheviot Asset Managementa kaže da Fed i Bank of England neće nikada vratiti zlato stranim vlasnicima.

Jim Villie kaže da zlata nema.

Činjenica da glavni urednik CNBC-a Džon Carnei raspravlja o tome da nije bitno da li Fed poseduje zlato ili ne uopšte ne daje razlog za optimizam.

Gerald Celente kaže: „Ne radi se samo o Nemačkoj (čije zlato je nestalo), radi se o SAD, svim zemljama. Niko ne zna šta se nalazi u Fort Knok-u. Ne puštaju nikoga unutra. Gde je zlato u SAD? Kako to da ne možemo ući u Fort Knok? “
„Kako to da ljudi ne mogu pregledati zlato? Kako to da političari ne mogu ući unutra? Kako to da niko ne može ući unutra? Zlato ne postoji. Sve ovo potvrđuje što mnogi od nas već znaju,“ Car nema zlata „.“

Egon von Greierz, osnivač i upravni partner Matterhorn Asset Management-a se slaže: „Verovatno nema ni približno onoliko zlata u centralnim bankama (koliko vlade tvrde da poseduju).“

Ron Paul traži da se izvrši kontrola u Fort Knok-u zbog sumnje mnogih da je zlato davno prodano.

Drugi tvrde da zlato nije prodano nego je dato u zakup pa stoga SAD ne poseduju direktno to zlato.

Eric Sprott, upravnik fonda od 10 milijardi dolara piše u članku „Da li zapadne centralne banke uopšte imaju zlata“:

„Ako zapadne centralne banke daju u zakup svoje fizičke rezerve, ne moraju objaviti tačan iznos zlata koji napušta njihove sefove. U dokumentu na internet stranici Evropske centralne banke o statističkom tretmanu međunarodnih rezervi Eurosistem-a sadašnje smernice o izveštavanju ne zahtevaju od centralnih banaka da prave razliku između zlata koje direktno poseduju i zlata koje je dato u zakup ili zamenjeno sa drugom stranom. U dokumentu piše: „reverzibilne transakcije u zlatu nemaju nikakav efekat na stepen monetarnog zlata bez obzira na vrstu transakcije (na primer, zamena zlata, repozitorij, depoziti i zajmovi), u skladu sa preporukama koje se nalaze u smernicama MMF-a. “

Prema sadašnjim smernicama o izveštavanju, centralnim bankama je dozvoljeno da na zaključnom računu drže upisano fizičko zlato čak i ako su ga zamenili ili ga u potpunosti dali u zakup. To se vidi u tome kako zapadne centralne banke govore o svojim zlatnim rezervama. Vlada Velike Britanije, na primer, kaže za alokaciju svog zlata „Zlato (uključujući zamenjeno ili dato u zakup)“.

To je fraza koju koriste u svojoj službenoj izjavi. Isto važi za Ministarstvo finansija SAD-a i ECB koji izveštavaju o svome zlatu kao „Zlato (uključujući depozite zlata i, ako je prikladno, zamenjeno zlato)“ i „Zlato (uključujući depozite zlata i zamenjeno zlato)“ (pogledati tabelu B).

Nažalost, to je sav opis. Nijedna od ovih institucija ne kaže koji procenat navedenih zlatnih rezervi je fizički u posedu, a koliko je dato u zakup ili zamenjeno za nešto drugo. Činjenica da ne prave razliku između to dvoje je neverovatna kao i „uključujući depozite zlata“, reči koje koriste (a na šta drugo se „zlato“ treba odnositi?), Ali u isto vreme to i nije iznenađujuće.

Centralna banka bi narušila ugled ako bi priznala da da je davala u zakup svoje zlatne rezerve posrednicima – ‘bankama poluga’ koji su zatim prodavali svoje zlato Kini, na primer. Ali brojke itekako ukazuju na to da se upravo to dogodilo. Verovatno nema zlata koje pripada centralnim bankama a „banke poluga“ koje su ga prodale nemaju realne šanse da ga dobiju nazad (Omar Fehimovićvrijeme objave: Sreda – 14. Novembar 2012)

Shock: NYTimes notes that banking system gold may not be real or accessible

Submitted by cpowell on Wed, 2012-11-14 02:52. Section: Daily Dispatches

How About a Fort Knox of Your Own?

By Paul Sullivan
The New York Times
Wednesday, November 14, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/your-money/some-gold-investors-want-th…

The last time the world as we knew it seemed likely to end, Dan Tapiero thought about buying gold.

He didn’t tell his wife; they didn’t talk about things like that. In fact he didn’t tell anyone for a while. He just tried to figure out how he was going to buy physical gold as the financial markets collapsed at the end of 2008.

Mining stocks were not for him, and neither was buying gold on the futures exchange. That was financial gold, meaning it existed on account statements but was not tangible. He wanted the real thing, gold in the form of bullion that he could hold in his palms, smudge with his thumbs.

But Mr. Tapiero, a portfolio manager at several hedge funds over the last two decades, realized quite quickly that it was harder to fulfill his desire than he had thought. When he called up one bank he patronized in his day job, he learned it had a minimum purchase amount of $20 million worth of physical gold. Even at that amount, he could not have access to it; it would have to stay at the bank.

… Dispatch continues below …

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He didn’t want to buy that much, but he wanted to buy more than a bag of gold coins, or a bar or two. Most of all, he wanted to know that it would be stored some place safe where he could get to it even if all of the banks suddenly closed for a while. „There was concern at that time that the system was frozen and you didn’t really know whether you were going to be able to have access to your money or to your assets,“ Mr. Tapiero said. „And I started thinking, OK, well, I’d like to own something that isn’t a number on a flashing screen.”

Investing in physical gold has had an image problem of late. After the financial crisis, it was seen by many mainstream advisers as something that crackpots coveted. They would buy it, store in their basements, and know that their wealth was secure if the world — or at least the prevailing financial and political systems — ended.

This was easy to mock, and many people did. What, after all, would you buy with your gold if the world came to an end?

Then there was the group that saw gold as a speculative bet, as something that would rise in value as fear about the global economy sunk in. That was less of a crackpot idea: the price of gold went from around $700 an ounce when Mr. Tapiero began buying it in the fall of 2008 to more than $1,900 an ounce last summer. It is now trading around $1,700 an ounce.

Mr. Tapiero did not buy his bullion because he thought the world was ending. „And if it did end,“ he said, „I don’t know that gold would be that important — it might be radioactive.”

He also made clear that he does not keep it at his home in Greenwich, Conn. „It might not be safe,“ he said, „if someone holds you at gunpoint and they say, ‘Show me your safe’ and you open it up and all your gold is there.“

Instead, his gold — now about 25 percent of his net worth, he said, declining to quantify it further — is kept in various professionally managed vaults. We met at one in Midtown Manhattan.

The vault was in an unassuming, brick office building with a completely plain, even dingy lobby. The offices of the vaulting company, which asked not to be named as a condition for granting me entry, had rows of nondescript cubicles that gave no sign beyond the company logo of what might be going on there.

As for the vault itself, it looked secure from the outside. But once past the thick door, it felt completely utilitarian, even a bit grim, particularly for what it held for its undisclosed number of clients.

Mr. Tapiero eyed the rows of 100-ounce bars — each about the size of an iPhone and worth about $170,000 — and estimated there was $4 billion worth of gold at current prices stacked on metal shelves that looked as if they were built in the 1970s. That amount of gold would fit in the back of any sport utility vehicle.

The vault company did not share the identities of other customers. But suspicion that there was interest in owning this kind of physical gold led Mr. Tapiero and a friend, Steven Feldman, to form a company, Gold Bullion International, in 2009. It allows people to buy bullion but also to have access to it and, if they want, have it delivered to their home or anywhere else. Their customers range from chief executives and entrepreneurs to housewives and grandparents buying for their grandchildren.

Mr. Tapiero described their challenge as, „How do we start a company that can provide physical gold — have it delivered, but also have it stored outside the banking system — to the retail customer?”

His theory was that gold had been misunderstood in the United States in a way that it had not been in the rest of the world. He attributed this to the inability of individuals to own gold for some 40 years, after President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933 ordered any American holding more than $100 worth of gold to exchange if for $20.67 an ounce. He did this to prevent individuals from hoarding gold during the Great Depression, and the restriction wasn’t lifted until the 1970s.

Another reason Mr. Tapiero thinks people came to misjudge gold was the bull market in stocks from 1982 to 2007, which made owning an asset that just sits there, like gold, unattractive.

Mr. Tapiero said that today gold was a legitimate investment that should be part of any diversified portfolio, because it is a hedge against a global economic slowdown and the inflation that many believe will occur when economies pick up.

But like many investments, the likelihood that gold will continue to increase in value rests on the rise of India and China. There, gold is being increasingly bought as a way to demonstrate success in addition to as an investment.

If you don’t need to be able to put your hands on your gold to sleep at night, the World Gold Council sponsors an exchange-traded fund, which trades under the ticker GLD. It allows people to buy and sell shares in a fund that owns gold, much as they would with a mutual fund that owns stocks.

Jason Toussaint, managing director of the World Gold Council, said that like Mr. Tapiero, his group wanted people to see gold as something that they should always own and not something they buy only as a safe haven.

„It implies people run to it and then when the storm has passed they go back to risky assets,“ he said. „We think the time is right to look for a new paradigm.“

More traditional advisers see a place for gold in some portfolios, though they put it in the same group as other alternative assets. They also advise keeping the allocation relatively low, 3 to 5 percent of a total portfolio.

„Most assets like equities or bonds can be valued because they throw off some income over time,“ said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer and head of investment management and guidance for Merrill Lynch Wealth Management. „We talk about gold not as an investing asset but purely as a hedging asset.“

Mr. Tapiero said that the idea of making gold a permanent part of a portfolio was part of a broader argument about the future of the global economy, one epitomized in the professional investing world by two very different managers.

There is Warren Buffett, who made his fortune buying stocks in companies he understands and who does not see much use in owning gold. Then there is Ray Dalio, who runs Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund, who has put 10 percent of his firm’s money into gold.

Mr. Tapiero says he believes gold will continue to be a store of value, and he dismisses the end-of-the-world crowd — though, he said, his company is happy to sell them gold and store it for them.

„Gold will do very well, and it will be good to have physical gold if everything happens except the end of the world,“ Mr. Tapiero said. „If the end of the world is zero, and we get to 10, from 100, it’s going to be the thing that performs well.“

 

 

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